
Anatomy of Conflict
86 vs 33: The Number That Predicts Your Relationship
About this episode
The number that predicts divorce. The six-second window that saves arguments. The FBI model that works at your kitchen table. Three tools in 18 minutes.
In this episode
Key ideas
- The episode introduces relationship conflict as a trainable skill rather than a fixed personality trait.
- Ryan connects divorce prediction research, brief repair windows, and FBI-style listening tools.
- The same conflict mechanics can appear in marriages, co-parenting, workplace disputes, and family fights.
- Small moves like pausing, asking better questions, and listening differently can change the direction of an argument.
- The promise of the show is practical tools people can use in real conversations, not abstract communication advice.
Transcript
Big thoughts, quick talk, flip facts, tick talk, level up your mind, every single line, here's something that nobody tells you. You are in conflict right now, like right now at this exact present moment in time while you're listening to this, right? There's somebody in your life could be your spouse, your child, your business partner, your neighbor, your teenager, your mother, your father, sister, brother, your boss. And there's a thing between the two of you that maybe hasn't been said, maybe there's a conversation that you've been avoiding, a text that you've sent or drafted three times and then deleted and not in your stomach every time their name pops up into your head or phone, right?
Conflict is inevitable. This has been shown again and again and again and it's perpetual. And on the other side of that phone call, that neighbor, that friend that there's the other person is probably feeling a similar way about you, right? So conflict is ubiquitous. I'm right. I'm a mediator. I sit between people in conflict for a living mostly divorcing couples, but I've been in rooms with business partners, splitting million dollar companies. I've been in rooms with co-parents who can't look at each other. I've been in rooms with neighbors who are really struggling, right? And the thing, the things I've learned in that chair, the things that I'm learning are the tools of conflict.
And that's what this this podcast is about. The thing that I'm rediscovering again again is that nobody ever taught us how to handle conflict, right? And that's what this podcast is about. This is a podcast about the skills nobody has taught us that nobody is teaching us yet. It is how to be good at conflict. Or let's say it differently, how do we better at conflict? Not necessarily how to win arguments, not how to communicate better in some kind of HR poster child kind of way. I mean actually getting better at very genuinely difficult conversations.
And what I'm interested in is, can we develop a muscle in a data backed way such that complex management is a skill not a personality trait, not something you're born either good or bad, right? It's a skill set that you can train. Right now it seems mostly we treat conflict like the weather. We've got our good days and our bad days. We've got our rainy days and our sunny days and conflict comes kind of like the wind blows in, right? From the west. It just happens to us and we either survive it or we don't. We manage it. We get through it.
But we don't yet ask ourselves, what if we can get better at this thing, improve at this thing? Get good at it. Like it is a skill. And so I don't think this is universally true. But I think this is sort of the framework that we're generally operating under. And so what if the next time your partner says something that lights you up or your co-workers throws you under the bus or your mother-in-law made that kind of comment at dinner, what if you actually had pre-planed strategized moves, test moves, thoughts, plans? And this is where it gets really interesting. This is the meat on the proverbial bone. It's a question of tools.
And it might sound crazy, but I think it's true in the data shows that it's largely true that the principles, for example, in FBI hostage negotiation that they use to talk somebody down off a ledge, they also work at your kitchen table. That the framework that a mediator uses to help to see sweet executive split a company, that framework also helps you figure out how to manage Thanksgiving with your divorce parents or your co-parents or your uncle Fred, right? The context on face seemed wildly different. The stakes are wildly different, but many of maybe most of the underlying mechanics of how humans get stuck and how they get unstuck, those are universal.
And we're not speaking hypothesis, we're speaking in data, what's been shown and proven. So on this show, we're going to go a lot of different directions. On this podcast, we're going to go a lot of different directions, not today, but over the course of the podcast, over the life and breath of the podcast. We're going to talk about couples, and not just the ones getting divorced, but the ones trying really, really hard not to.
What happens in a fight between two people who love each other and why does it love as much as our wedding vows and wedding days seem like it might, why doesn't the, when you profess your love, why doesn't it instantly, you protect you from fights, from terrible fights, from conflict habits? We're going to talk about the workplace. For example, that pastel aggressive email chain that's really about power and it's not really about the project you're talking about, the coworker who like moops in your boss on everything. Like what is that about? What does that mean? How do you handle it? The performance review that you're dreading giving or receiving, right?
That environment and we're going to talk about family and neighbors, Uncle Fred, proverbially, and the political opinions that Thanksgiving, particularly now with the riff between the left and the right, particularly as a podcaster coming from Minnesota in the spring of 26. We'll talk about your sibling who treats you like you're still 12. You're in law dynamic that makes you want to eat dinner in the car and not go to their house, right? Avoid them in all costs. Yes, we're going to talk about extreme stuff too. Hostage negotiation. I think are great examples. International diplomacy.
Now more apropos than ever. What happens when the conflict is legitimately life or death? Because these situations have been studied. They've been studied and researched obsessively and I think that the lessons will find apply more broadly than you might expect. So here's what I want to provide in every episode. Here's the sauce. Here's the promise. I want to give you one thing you can actually use and deploy. Not theory, not wonderful stories, not intriguing stories, not a bunch of academic jargon, but an actual chess move you can put in your front pocket or reframe a sentence you can say out loud, a realization, a psychological phenomenon. We need to train ourselves in this art and this science.
We need to think about asking different questions. We need to shut up for 10 or more seconds. We need to have the courage to develop the courage to say the scary honest thing instead of the safe dishonest thing. These are all tiny little baby small moves. When you start stacking these small moves, what happens when you build a toolkit? What is the cumulative effect of stacking these tools? And that's the game. That's what we're going to play and I'm really excited about it.
So stick with me. That's the podcast. My name is Ryan McLaughlin. I'm a mediator. I sit between people in the most difficult, edgy-esque, rustiest, gnarliest, hard conversations of their lives and I want to share and explore everything I've learned and I'm learning in that chair. I'll see you in the next episode.
More from Anatomy of Conflict

It's 9:30 at Night and You're in a Fight. Who Do You Call? | Jill Nagle
It's 9:30 at night. You're in it with your partner, your neighbor, your sibling.You already know how this goes, because you know this person and you know yourself. A therapist is booking three weeks out. There is nothing to call.Jill Nagle is building the thing you'd call. Mendful is a platform for human-forward, AI-supported conflict resolution on demand — her line is that it should be as common as calling a rideshare. She's trained 13 conflict resolution coaches across seven countries, has another cohort starting in October, and isrolling the service out at $60 an hour.We get into it:— What "solving" a conflict actually means. Jill's answer is a state change, not an agreement: get the nervous system out of the tree, get underneath the story about who's wrong to the feelings and needs beneath it, and the details usuallywork themselves out afterward.— Why she treats the deal-making part as Act Three. She studied screenwriting, and her instruction to her coaches when parties finally start talking to each other is to step back and stop doing technique at them.— The DIY problem. Why wouldn't someone just prompt ChatGPT with "give me a nonviolent-communication answer to this"? Her answer: it can't hold two people at once, and it doesn't know what a pause or an interruption means.— My two-year forecast, and what she pushed back on. Mediation's value has four components — information, procedure, regulation, legitimacy. AI takes the information one to zero. If you're the retired judge who's seen it all, you'renow competing with something that has also seen it all. What's left is whether two nervous systems can be regulated by a third one, and whether people still want a human in the room for it.— The AI she's building anyway: Mendy, through her sister company Paravox, able to sit in a session and hand off to a human on request — with no mandatory AI anywhere in the product, because she's watched people hear "AI" and leave.— The thing she named that I haven't stopped thinking about: going to healers and therapists for years and noticing that right when she was about to break through, the practitioner would get anxious and start doing their modality to her, on her, at her. What Mendful teaches first is the opposite of that — spaciousness, so a nervous system can settle enough to get to the point.My read, for anyone practicing in this space: the informational moat is gone.Get to the top of your game and tell people what you actually do, because if they don't know you have it, they can't buy it from you.Jill's platform and practitioner training: mendful.world (click Training —there are recordings of the one-hour intro session in there).Anatomy of Conflict is hosted by Ryan McLaughlin of Flannel People Mediation.More at flannelpeoplemediation.com.

I Use Tarot Cards in Mediations. I Can't Tell You Anything Spiritual Is Happening.
I bought an Oracle deck and I've started pulling cards in mediations. I can't tell you anything spiritual is happening. That's not why I use them.When two people are stuck — really stuck, the kind where they've said the same sentence to each other four times — a card puts an image in front of both of them that neither one owns. Nobody has to defend it. Your brain goes from one groove to another groove, and sometimes that jump is the spark you needed.I've been careful about it. I don't want to be seen as a freak. I want to be taken seriously. So I've done it lightly, and I wanted to talk to somebody who does it all the way.Brennan O'Connor — Soul Coach OC — has been meditating since his early twenties and picked up tarot a few months ago. He's certified in several energy-healing modalities. He also says this: "the biggest thing I know is that I don't really know anything." He's watched people in his own field decide everything is true, and he won't do it.We get into where "spiritual" starts and where it stops. Priming versus synchronicity — my mom died on October 27, so my sisters and I clock 1027 everywhere, and I still can't tell you whether that's meaning or manufacturing. Say "red motorcycle" three times and you'll see red motorcycles tonight. He tells me about waking up and seeing the spirit of a baby lying between him and his wife, and finding out a week later she was pregnant.Then he pulls a live reading for me, on a week I wouldn't describe on tape. Justice. Card 11.The part I keep chewing on: it didn't give me an answer. It gave me a question. Before that I didn't have a question — I had "how do I get through this week."Brennan O'Connor — Soul Coach OC Email: Brennan.OC@gmail.com Instagram: @soulcoach.oc Web: soulcoachoc.com Tarot readings, past-life regression, energy healing, 1:1 soul coaching.Ryan McLaughlin — Flannel People Mediation Divorce and family mediation in Minnesota. 250+ five-star Google reviews. Web: flannelpeoplemediation.com Email: flannelpeoplemediation@gmail.com Phone: 763-316-8323 Free 15-minute consult: calendly.com/flannelpeoplemediation/free15consult

Nobody Leaves Because of the Fighting
Steph Paquin is an LMFT in Minneapolis who mostly sees couples. Her claim: the marriages that end aren't always the loud ones.Not explosive, not infidelity, not one event — but emotionally quiet. Her description of the evening: manage the kids, make dinner, sit on the couch, scroll. No micro-connections, no greetings, not a lot of curiosity. Her line is that it's the absence of connection, not the presence of fighting, that predicts who initiates.Women are usually the ones who call. Men call when there's been an ultimatum. And women's tolerance for inequity, she says, has changed a lot faster than the marriages have.I floated a $30,000 two-week couples intensive at her. She said "yes, and" — then said two weeks of tools is close to oversaturation, because humans need repetition and application is the part that decides it.Steph Paquin, MA, LMFT — thetissueclinic.com. The research she's drawing on is nearly all heterosexual couples; she names that early, and part two is our next convo.